Change Hits. Value Shifts. Money Follows.
How did AI shift value in your industry? When will the money follow?
The Pattern That Keeps Repeating
Every major disruption follows the same three-beat sequence: Change Hits → Value Shifts → Money Follows. Kodak saw digital photography emerge and did nothing. Blockbuster watched Netflix scale and doubled down on stores. The pattern is old. What’s new is the speed.
AI is compressing decades of disruption into months.
Legal Tech
Anthropic releases Claude legal plugins that automate contract review, NDA triage, and compliance workflows — and open-sources the code on GitHub.
Legal SaaS companies that charged $50,000+/year for workflow tools watched their value proposition evaporate overnight.
$285 billion wiped from software stocks in 48 hours. Thomson Reuters dropped 18% in a single day.
EdTech
OpenAI launches ChatGPT, delivering instant answers to any homework question for free.
Chegg’s 46 million textbook solutions became worthless when ChatGPT could generate better answers in real time.
$14.5 billion in shareholder value destroyed ($113 → $2/share). 500,000 subscribers canceled in 12 months.
BPO / Call Centers
AI customer service bots reach professional-grade quality. Resolve 83% of support issues autonomously.
BPO call centers lost their labor arbitrage. Klarna replaced 700 agents, saving $40M annually.
80,000 jobs lost. Translation freelancers report 65% revenue decline. Margins collapsing industry-wide.
Same AI Wave. Opposite Outcomes.
Not every company on the receiving end of “Change Hits” ends up losing. The difference is whether AI replaces your unique value or amplifies it.
The Losers: Value Replaced
Chegg
Connected students to offshore tutors and a database of textbook answers. ChatGPT delivered instant, free answers to any question.
Result: -99% ($14.5B → $200M)
Legal SaaS “Wrappers”
Licensed Claude/GPT APIs, added legal-specific UI, charged $50K/year. Then Anthropic released the same capabilities directly to customers for $100/month.
Result: $285B market panic
Traditional BPO
Sold labor arbitrage (cheap offshore agents). AI handles 83% of issues without humans.
Result: 80,000 jobs lost, margins collapsing
The Winners: Value Amplified
Khan Academy
Had unique curriculum, pedagogy expertise, and 15 years of educator trust. Partnered with OpenAI to build Khanmigo AI tutor.
Result: +740% growth (45 → 380 school districts), 8–14x better learning outcomes
GitHub
Had the world’s largest code repository and developer community. Copilot automated routine coding while amplifying developer productivity.
Result: +1000% productivity gains
Walmart
Had proprietary supply chain data and supplier relationships AI couldn’t replicate. Used AI to enhance forecasting.
Result: 30% reduction in stockouts, 8% profit growth
“A company can only capture value from activities uniquely contributed by its own operations. Any non-unique contribution gets competed away, with value flowing to customers.”
Change hit all of these companies. Value shifted in every case. But money followed in opposite directions — out of companies with no unique value, into companies whose unique assets became more valuable with AI.
Find Out Which Side You’re OnThe 5 Questions That Predict Where Money Follows
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Does AI eliminate your bottleneck?
If the constraint that justified your pricing disappears, so does your value capture.
FATAL
Chegg: Tutor speed and cost → ChatGPT eliminated itCRITICAL
Legal SaaS: Lawyer review time → Claude automated itOPPORTUNITY
Khan Academy: Tutoring at scale → AI enhanced, didn’t replace -
Are your primary activities commoditizable?
Map every activity in your value chain. If AI can perform 80%+ of them as well or better, you’re a wrapper company — and wrapper companies get bypassed.
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Can you integrate AI to enhance existing assets?
Winners use AI as a multiplier on unique value. Khan Academy × AI tutoring = 8–14x better outcomes. Walmart × AI forecasting = 30% fewer stockouts. Losers use AI as a product and get undercut when customers access the same AI directly.
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Do you have unique data or relationships AI needs?
Defensible: Proprietary datasets, 15+ years of industry relationships, regulatory expertise, trusted brand, physical infrastructure. Not defensible: Workflow UIs around AI APIs, bilingual humans, customer service scripts, textbook answer databases.
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What percentage of your value chain is AI-resistant?
AI-Resistant Risk Level Action Required 0–25% CRITICAL Exit or radical pivot in 6–12 months 25–50% HIGH Strategic transformation in 12–24 months 50–75% MODERATE Aggressive AI integration strategy 75–100% LOW Use AI for competitive advantage
You'll get a clear vulnerability score (0–100), competitive positioning analysis, and a strategic recommendation: Defend, Partner, Transform, or Exit.
Book Your 30-Minute DiagnosticBuilt for Leaders Facing AI Disruption
PE Managing Director
You need to protect fund returns and can’t afford a Chegg moment before exit. One company on the wrong side of the value shift destroys your IRR.
“Which of my portfolio companies face existential AI risk in the next 18 months?”
PE Operating Partner
You’re responsible for value creation across 10–20 companies and need to know where transformation investment will preserve value versus where you should prepare for sale.
“Where is the change hitting, how is value shifting, and where should I deploy capital?”
CEO / President
You need to know whether AI is an existential threat or a growth opportunity — with data and a framework, not guesswork. The board is asking. Your competitors are moving.
“Am I Chegg or Khan Academy? And what do I do about it?”
Board Director
You need confidence that management has a credible AI strategy before the next board meeting. Fiduciary duty requires understanding this risk.
“Has anyone actually assessed whether our business model survives AI?”
Why Most Companies Can’t See the Shift Coming
The “Change Hits → Value Shifts → Money Follows” pattern is only visible if you know where to look. Traditional analysis doesn’t.
Revenue looks healthy until it suddenly doesn’t.
Chegg was adding subscribers through Q4 2022. Then 500,000 canceled in 12 months. Thomson Reuters was stable until February 3, 2026. Quarterly financials are a lagging indicator — by the time revenue declines, the value has already shifted.
Management teams underestimate velocity.
CEOs say “AI is a tool, not a threat” until a foundation model releases a plugin that automates their entire value chain. Chegg’s CEO publicly acknowledged ChatGPT’s impact only after it was too late to pivot.
No standard framework exists for this.
Competitive analysis misses AI disruption because AI doesn’t compete within your category — it eliminates your category entirely. You need a different lens.
Our value chain analysis framework maps where change hits, how value shifts, and where money will follow — 12 to 24 months before it shows up in financials.
How It Works: 2 Steps to Complete Clarity
Map the Value Chain
- Value Chain Analysis — Every primary and support activity mapped and assessed for AI vulnerability
- AI Disruption Scenario Modeling — Can foundation models and AI agents disrupt your value chain? How fast?
- Competitive Landscape Scan — Are competitors already integrating AI? Are customers testing alternatives? Are you hearing “why not just use ChatGPT?”
- “Change Hits” Timeline — Where is your company in the disruption sequence? Month 0–6 (assess now), Month 6–12 (act urgently), or Month 12+ (too late to pivot)?
Predict Where Money Follows
- Vulnerability Score (0–100) — Quantified risk based on value chain analysis and the 5-question framework
- Industry Benchmarking — How does your company compare to others in your sector?
- Strategic Recommendation — Defend (integrate AI to amplify unique value), Partner (find AI platform allies), Transform (pivot business model), or Exit (sell while financials are clean)
- 90-Minute Executive Presentation — Board-ready findings with financial modeling and implementation roadmap
Deliverables
30-page written report with full value chain analysis
Executive summary for investment committee or board
Action roadmap with timeline and investment requirements
Where Change Has Already Hit
CRITICAL 70–95% Vulnerability — Assess Immediately
Legal Technology / SaaS
$285B SaaSpocalypse (Feb 2026). Claude legal plugins automate contract review, compliance, research. Value chain commoditized.
Education Technology
Chegg: 99% collapse. Students prefer free ChatGPT. No unique value to defend.
BPO / Call Centers
80,000 US jobs lost. AI resolves 83% of issues. Klarna replaced 700 agents. Labor arbitrage model broken.
Translation / Localization
65% freelancer revenue decline. Google Translate and DeepL match professional quality. Commodity translation is over.
HIGH 40–70% Vulnerability — Assess Within 60 Days
Accounting / Tax Prep
Hazel AI launch (Feb 2026) crashed financial stocks 7–9%. Automated tax planning approaching human parity.
Content / Marketing Services
AI writing tools handle 80%+ of routine content. SEO content farms collapsing. Agencies under margin pressure.
Offshore Software / IT Services
Indian IT stocks crashed during SaaSpocalypse. GitHub Copilot and Claude Code automate 40–60% of coding.
Legal Services / Law Firms
Claude automates junior associate work. $200–400/hr associates vs. $100/month AI. Major firms already testing.
MODERATE 25–50% Vulnerability — Assess Within 90 Days
Healthcare IT / Admin
AI handles coding, billing, scheduling. Regulatory barriers slow AI-only adoption.
Financial Services / Wealth Mgmt
Robo-advisors commoditize basic advice. High-net-worth clients still prefer humans. Mixed picture.
HR Software / Services
AI recruiting and chatbots advancing. Complex HR still requires human judgment.
The 12-Month Window
AI disruption follows a predictable timeline. Knowing where your company sits on this curve is the difference between proactive strategy and reactive panic.
| Phase | Timeline | What Happens | Your Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Change Hits | Months 0–6 | AI capability launches, early adopters test | ASSESS NOW |
| Value Shifts | Months 6–12 | Customers begin switching, revenue pressure builds | ACT URGENTLY |
| Money Follows | Months 12–18 | Revenue decline obvious in financials | Too late to pivot |
| Collapse | Months 18–24+ | Valuation collapses, only distressed exit possible | Massive value loss |
Frequently Asked Questions
Find Out Where Your Company Stands
We’ll tell you where change is hitting your value chain and whether it’s time to act.